🎯 JAM-IE Tactical Score: A New Era of FPL Intelligence

Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is no longer just about chasing points—it’s about anticipating tactical value. That’s why JAM-IE introduces the Tactical Score, a modular, momentum-aware metric designed to spotlight high-impact assets before they become mainstream. Built from granular per-90 metrics, recent form, and threat indicators, this score helps managers cut through noise and identify elite contributors, breakout volatility, and tactical fades with surgical precision.

🔍 What Is the Tactical Score?

The Tactical Score is a weighted composite metric that evaluates a player’s underlying performance, recent explosiveness, and tactical upside. Unlike raw total points or ownership trends, it blends:

xG and xA per 90: Measures attacking intent and creative output.
Points per 90: Normalizes scoring efficiency across minutes played.
Threat per 90: Captures positional danger and goal involvement.
Recent Form Boost: Adds momentum weight for explosive gameweeks.
Total Points: Ensures cumulative output is factored in.

Ownership bias is deliberately excluded—so breakout players like Joao Pedro aren’t unfairly penalized for being popular or overlooked.

⚙️ How It Works: The Scoring Formula

Here’s a simplified breakdown of the Tactical Score logic:

sql

ROUND(
    CASE WHEN event_points >= 10 THEN 0.1 ELSE 0 END +  -- Momentum boost
    xG_weighted + xA_weighted + points_per_90_weighted + threat_weighted + total_points_weighted
, 3) AS tactical_score

Each component is normalized across the player pool using min-max scaling, then weighted:

Metric	Weight
xG per 90	25%
xA per 90	15%
Points per 90	30%
Threat per 90	15%
Total Points	15%
Recent Form Boost	+0.1

This modular structure allows easy tuning and future-proofing as the season evolves.

📊 Tactical Score Tiers

Each player is assigned a tier based on their score:

Elite Tactical Asset: Score ≥ 0.80
High-Value Pick: Score 0.65–0.79
Balanced Contributor: Score 0.50–0.64
Breakout Watch: Score < 0.50 but recent GW ≥ 10 points
Tactical Fade Zone: Score < 0.50 and low recent form

This tiering system gives managers a clear, actionable lens for squad selection, captaincy, and differential hunting.

🧠 Why It Matters

Traditional FPL metrics often reward consistency but miss volatility. Tactical Score flips that script:

Captures upside early: Flags players before they become template picks.
Ignores ownership bias: Doesn’t penalize popularity or obscurity.
Modular and scalable: Can evolve with new metrics (e.g. PPDA, progressive passes).
Supports branded publishing: Clean tiers and markdown-ready outputs for JAM-IE blog posts, LinkedIn summaries, and squad visuals.

🧪 Case Study: Joao Pedro

Let’s break down why Joao Pedro was misclassified in older models:

Metric	GW1	GW2	Total
Points	2	15	17
Minutes	72	90	162
Points per 90	1.11	15.00	9.44
Threat per 90	Low	High	Medium-High
Ownership (%)	28%	35%	↑

Despite a massive GW2, Pedro’s limited minutes and rising ownership would have faded him in legacy models. Tactical Score corrects this by:

Applying a momentum boost for GW2.
Normalizing per-90 metrics across the pool.
Removing ownership penalty.

Result: Pedro lands in “Breakout Watch”—a volatile asset with upside, not a tactical fade.

🛠️ Integration with JAM-IE

The Tactical Score is now embedded in JAM-IE’s publishing pipeline:

SQL logic: Refactored to include momentum-aware scoring and modular weights.
Markdown outputs: Tiered interpretation and tactical summaries auto-generated.
Visuals: Integrated with branded dashboards and blog-ready graphics.

This ensures every squad selector, captaincy breakdown, and differential post reflects tactical clarity and demo polish.

🚀 What’s Next?

Future iterations may include:

Rolling form decay: Exponential weighting of recent GWs.
Defensive metrics: CBI, recoveries, PPDA for defenders.
Fixture difficulty overlays: Adjust scores based on upcoming matchups.
AI-driven tiering: Dynamic thresholds based on pool volatility.

JAM-IE’s Tactical Score isn’t just a metric—it’s a philosophy. One that values upside, volatility, and tactical edge over raw popularity.

🧵 Final Thoughts

In a game where every point counts, tactical clarity is king. The Tactical Score helps managers see beyond the obvious—spotting elite assets, breakout volatility, and tactical fades with precision. Whether you’re building your squad, chasing differentials, or publishing branded insights, this score is your new north star.

Ready to fade the noise and follow the data? JAM-IE’s Tactical Score is live.

Brough to you by Copilot and JAM-IE

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