Gameweek 23 arrives at a fascinating moment in the season. With fixture swings looming, AFCON returnees re‑entering the fold, and several top sides facing tricky matchups, managers are split between rolling a transfer or attacking early. The week’s headline fixtures — Arsenal vs Manchester United and Newcastle vs Aston Villa — add further complexity, while Manchester City’s home tie against Wolves shapes the captaincy conversation.
Below is a deep, tactical look at the best picks, differentials, captaincy options, and strategic considerations for GW23, backed by the latest data and expert insights.
1. Fixture Landscape: Who Has the Edge?
Manchester City top most fixture tickers this week, with Wolves visiting the Etihad. Despite Wolves’ recent improvement, they still sit 18th for expected goals (xG) over the last four gameweeks, making City’s assets highly attractive.
Arsenal host Manchester United in what looks like a cagey affair. United’s resurgence under Michael Carrick has been promising, but Arsenal remain the league’s best home defence, conceding only 6.4 xG at the Emirates this season.
Elsewhere:
- Sunderland vs West Ham: West Ham have struggled for goals all season, making Sunderland defenders appealing.
- Fulham vs Brighton: Brighton’s inconsistency opens the door for Fulham attackers.
- Chelsea vs Crystal Palace: Palace are the lowest scorers across the last six gameweeks, boosting Chelsea defensive appeal.
These fixtures create a clear divide between premium must‑haves and budget enablers.
2. Premium Picks: Who Deserves Your Armband?
Erling Haaland (MCI)
Despite four blanks in his last five, Haaland remains the standout captaincy option. Hub AI projects him to exceed 10 points — a rare single‑gameweek projection — signalling strong confidence in his potential against Wolves.
Pep Guardiola recently described him as “exhausted,” but with City’s European rotation easing his load, he should start and dominate. Wolves’ defensive numbers have improved, but their underlying xG conceded still leaves room for City to exploit.
Bukayo Saka (ARS)
Saka’s expected goal involvement remains elite, and he retains penalties. However, the matchup against United’s improving defence makes him more of a steady pick than an explosive one this week.
Ollie Watkins (AVL)
Watkins has quietly outperformed Haaland for expected goals over the last six gameweeks (3.98 vs 3.84) and continues to deliver consistent returns. With Villa’s fixtures turning excellent from GW26, he’s a “buy early, reap later” option.
3. Budget Gems: The Enablers Who Could Haul
Gameweek 23 is rich with value picks — perfect for managers needing to free up cash or strengthen their benches.
Patrick Dorgu (MUN) – £4.3m
Dorgu’s attacking role as an advanced full‑back makes him a standout budget defender. He recently scored against Manchester City and offers both clean‑sheet and attacking potential, even against Arsenal.
Nordi Mukiele (SUN) – £4.4m
Sunderland’s defensive numbers are among the league’s best, and Mukiele’s DEFCON metrics and bonus point potential make him a reliable, rotation‑proof pick. West Ham’s toothless attack boosts his clean‑sheet odds.
Harry Wilson (FUL) – £5.9m
Wilson has five goals and five assists since his resurgence in GW13. Brighton’s volatility makes him a strong midfield differential with double‑digit potential.
Enzo Fernández (CHE) – £6.5m
Chelsea’s fixture against Crystal Palace — the league’s lowest scorers recently — puts Enzo firmly in the conversation. His deeper role is offset by set‑piece involvement and improved attacking numbers.
Ndiaye (EVE) – £5.5m
Fresh from AFCON, Everton’s talisman is on penalties and posts strong involvement stats. With low ownership and steady returns, he’s a safe differential.
4. Differential Targets: High Upside, Low Ownership
Antoine Semenyo (MCI)
Ineligible for midweek European fixtures, Semenyo is almost certain to start in the league. His explosive profile and City’s fixture make him a high‑risk, high‑reward punt — ideal for managers chasing rank.
Marc Guehi (MCI)
Now at Manchester City, Guehi is the fifth‑highest scoring defender in the game, with seven clean sheets and six attacking returns. His ownership is massive, but his ceiling remains high.
Granit Xhaka (WHU)
Xhaka has quietly delivered defensive contributions, clean sheets, and an assist in recent weeks. With West Ham’s favourable fixture, he’s a sneaky midfield option.
5. Team‑by‑Team Breakdown
Manchester City
- Best fixture of the week
- Haaland, Semenyo, and a defender (Guehi or Dias) form the ideal triple‑up
- Wolves’ xG numbers suggest City should dominate
Arsenal
- Tough fixture vs United
- Saka remains the standout
- Gabriel is a premium defensive pick with attacking threat and strong predicted points
Chelsea
- Crystal Palace’s poor scoring form boosts defensive appeal
- Palmer and Enzo remain strong midfield options
Fulham
- Wilson is the standout
- Brighton’s inconsistency makes this a high‑variance fixture
Everton
- Ndiaye offers penalties and consistent involvement
- Fixtures are steady rather than explosive
6. Captaincy Rankings for GW23
- Erling Haaland – Best fixture, elite projection, high ceiling
- Antoine Semenyo – Massive upside if he starts
- Bukayo Saka – Safe, reliable, but lower ceiling
- Ollie Watkins – Form pick with strong underlying numbers
- Gabriel (ARS) – For the brave: clean‑sheet potential + attacking threat
7. Chip Strategy: Should You Use One This Week?
Gameweek 23 is not an ideal chip week. With double and blank gameweeks approaching, most managers will benefit from saving their chips.
However:
- Triple Captain on Haaland is viable if you believe Wolves’ defence will regress.
- Free Hit is unnecessary unless your squad is severely compromised.
Upcoming fixture swings make GW26–29 a more strategic window for chip deployment.
8. Final Thoughts
Gameweek 23 is a week of contrasts: premium dilemmas, budget brilliance, and fixtures that could swing either way. Manchester City assets dominate the conversation, but smart managers will also look toward undervalued picks like Mukiele, Wilson, and Ndiaye to gain an edge.
Whether you’re protecting rank or chasing aggressively, the week offers multiple pathways to success. Stay flexible, monitor press conferences, and trust the data.
If you want, I can also help you build a full GW23 draft tailored to your squad structure.
Bought to you by JAMI-IE & Co-pilot
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