Gameweek 7 arrives with fixture volatility, tactical swings, and breakout potential across the board. Whether you’re wildcarding, chasing differentials, or locking in captaincy, this week demands sharp reads and modular planning. Here’s your audit-ready breakdown of the fixtures, key matchups, and top FPL assets to target.
🔍 Fixture Overview
| Date | Fixture | Win Probabilities (Home/Away) |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 3 (Fri) | Bournemouth vs Fulham | 50.4% / 23.8% |
| Oct 4 (Sat) | Leeds vs Tottenham | 34.3% / 38.5% |
| Oct 4 (Sat) | Man United vs Sunderland | 63.6% / 15.7% |
| Oct 4 (Sat) | Arsenal vs West Ham | 78.7% / 7.0% |
| Oct 4 (Sat) | Chelsea vs Liverpool | 33.1% / 41.4% |
| Oct 5 (Sun) | Aston Villa vs Burnley | 61.7% / 15.8% |
| Oct 5 (Sun) | Everton vs Crystal Palace | Even matchup |
| Oct 5 (Sun) | Newcastle vs Nott’m Forest | Strong home edge |
| Oct 5 (Sun) | Wolves vs Brighton | Brighton favored |
| Oct 5 (Sun) | Brentford vs Man City | City heavy favorites |
🎯 Top Fixtures to Target
1. Arsenal vs West Ham (H)
- Arsenal dominate the win probability and have a strong home scoring record.
- West Ham have scored twice in 3 of their last 5 vs Arsenal, but clean sheet odds still favor the Gunners.
Target Players:
- Viktor Gyökeres – 3 goals at home, 13 shots, 4 big chances
- Bukayo Saka – Set-piece threat, high ownership, creative routes to points
- Gabriel – Set-piece goal last week, clean sheet potential
2. Man United vs Sunderland (H)
- United have double Sunderland’s xG and a 63.6% win probability.
- Sunderland concede heavily on their left flank.
Target Players:
- Bruno Fernandes – 2 goals, 16 chances created, penalty taker
- Bryan Mbeumo – Top for shots among midfielders, strong matchup on Sunderland’s weak side
- Matheus Cunha – Differential pick, due a breakout
3. Aston Villa vs Burnley (H)
- Burnley have conceded 116 shots and 13 goals this season.
- Villa are strong at home and Burnley’s defensive metrics are bottom-tier.
Target Players:
- Ollie Watkins – Back on the scoresheet, 3 big chances, 4 key passes
4. Bournemouth vs Fulham (H)
- High-scoring history between these sides, with 3+ goals in 4 of last 5.
- Fulham struggling away from home.
Target Player:
- Antoine Semenyo – 4 goals, 2 assists in 6 games, second only to Haaland for goal involvements
⚔️ Fixtures to Approach with Caution
Chelsea vs Liverpool
- Both teams have scored in their last 4 meetings.
- Liverpool edge the win probability, but Chelsea’s xG is higher this season
Hold or Avoid:
- Mo Salah – Still a captaincy option, but away fixture tempers upside
- Chelsea assets – Rotation risk and low clean sheet odds
Brentford vs Man City
- City have dropped points in 2 of last 3 away vs Brentford.
- Brentford concede ~2 goals per game.
Target Player:
- Erling Haaland – 6 goals, 1 assist in last 4, top for shots and big chances
🧠 Differential Watchlist
| Player | Club | Ownership | GW7 Fixture | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo | Bournemouth | Low | Fulham (H) | Form pick, high involvement |
| Bryan Mbeumo | Man United | Moderate | Sunderland (H) | Strong underlying stats |
| Gabriel | Arsenal | Moderate | West Ham (H) | Set-piece goal threat |
| Matheus Cunha | Man United | Very Low | Sunderland (H) | Breakout candidate |
🧮 Captaincy Matrix
| Option | Fixture | xG Threat | Ownership | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Haaland | Brentford (A) | 🔥 High | Massive | Low |
| Saka | West Ham (H) | 🔥 High | High | Medium |
| Bruno Fernandes | Sunderland (H) | 🔥 High | Moderate | Medium |
| Watkins | Burnley (H) | 🔥 Medium | Low | High |
🧰 Tactical Notes for JAM-IE
- Wildcarders: Arsenal triple-up is viable with Gyökeres, Saka, and Gabriel. Man United midfield stack also strong.
- Differential Hunters: Semenyo and Mbeumo offer high upside with low ownership.
- Defensive Picks: Gabriel and Luiz offer clean sheet + attacking threat.
- Captaincy: Haaland remains the safest, but Saka and Bruno offer volatility-based upside.
Brought to you by Co-pilot and JAM-IE
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