Forget vibes — we’re going full forensic. By comparing actual goal contributions (AGCI) to expected stats (XGCI), we expose the truth behind the points. Whether you’re chasing differentials or dodging regression, this breakdown of forwards and midfielders will sharpen your squad decisions.
⚔️ Forwards: Finishing Fire vs Expected Fizzle
⚡ Overperformers (Ratio < 1)
Clinical finishers or variance merchants — these forwards are outscoring their underlying stats:
- João Pedro (0.35): 5 returns from just 1.76 xGCI — 🚨 massive overperformance.
- Richarlison (0.47), Bowen (0.45): Significantly outperforming xGCI — ⚠️ regression watch.
- Ekitiké (0.53): 4 returns from 2.13 xGCI — 💎 strong value.
- Thiago (0.72): Efficient finisher — 4 goals from 2.72 xG.
- Haaland (0.82): Slightly outperforming xG, but still elite — 🐐 hold.
🧪 Underperformers (Ratio > 1)
These forwards are trailing their expected stats — prime bounce-back candidates:
- Beto (2.62): 1 return from 2.62 xGCI — 🧊 finishing woes.
- Mateta (2.31): Big underdelivery — 📉 due a spike.
- Watkins (1.9), Wood (1.46), Gyökeres (1.15): All underperforming — 🎯 buy low potential.
🧊 Cold or Inactive
- Füllkrug: 1.04 xGCI, zero returns — unlucky or underused.
- Evanilson, Šeško, Foster: Modest returns, close to expected — neutral hold.
🧠 Midfielders: Tactical Truths Beneath the Surface
⚡ Overperformers (Ratio < 1)
These mids are delivering far more than their xGCI suggests:
- Gravenberch (0.19), Henderson (0.18), Caicedo (0.26): 🚨 unsustainable output.
- Kudus, Rice, Bruno G., Xhaka: All under 0.41 — 🔥 tactical overperformance.
- Semenyo (0.45): 9 returns from 4.02 xGCI — 💰 elite differential.
🧪 Underperformers (Ratio > 1)
High xGCI, low returns — these mids are due:
- B.Fernandes (2.50): 2 returns from 4.99 xGCI — 💣 breakout incoming.
- Amad, Brooks, Szoboszlai, Mbeumo, Gibbs-White, Neto: All trailing expected output — 📈 buy low radar.
🧊 Cold or Inactive
- Wirtz, Ward-Prowse, King, Joelinton, Gomes, Ampadu, André: No returns despite xGCI — 💤 low impact.
📊 Strategic Summary
| Move Type | Forwards | Midfielders |
|---|---|---|
| 🔄 Buy Low | Mateta, Beto, Watkins | B.Fernandes, Szoboszlai, Mbeumo |
| 💰 Sell High | João Pedro, Richarlison, Bowen | Gravenberch, Semenyo, Bruno G. |
| 🧱 Hold Elite | Haaland |
📊 Lets visualise
ere’s your tactical scatterplot visualizing Actual Goal Contributions (AGCI) vs Expected Goal Contributions (XGCI) for FPL forwards and midfielders:
- 🟢 Green: Overperformers (ratio < 1)
- 🔴 Red: Underperformers (ratio > 1)
- ⚪ Gray: Cold/inactive (AGCI = 0)
- 🏷️ Top 5 overperformers and underperformers are labeled for quick insight
📊 X-axis: XGCI 📊 Y-axis: AGCI
Brought to you by Co-pilot and JAM-IE
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